The recent plunge in the value of the yen against major currencies, known as “yen depreciation”, has become a growing concern both within Japan and globally. This depreciation has raised questions about the underlying causes and the potential impact it may have on the Japanese economy and financial markets. One of the key questions that arise is: how long will this depreciation last? While it is challenging to predict the exact duration of yen depreciation, analysts and economists have provided various perspectives on its potential trajectory in the coming years, particularly up to 2025.
Several factors have contributed to the recent weakness of the yen. One major factor is the contrasting monetary policies between Japan and other major economies, particularly the United States. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates extremely low to stimulate economic growth. In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has embarked on a path of interest rate hikes to combat rising inflation. This divergence in monetary policies has created a significant interest rate differential between the two countries, making Japanese yen assets less attractive to investors seeking higher returns. Additionally, the geopolitical tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict have created uncertainty in global markets, further contributing to the flight from riskier currencies like the yen.
Analysts’ predictions on the duration of yen depreciation vary. Some suggest that the depreciation may continue in the near term as the BOJ maintains its accommodative stance while the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy. Others believe that the yen may gradually stabilize as global economic conditions improve and geopolitical uncertainties subside. However, there is also a view that structural factors, such as Japan’s aging population and declining productivity, could lead to a longer-term depreciation of the yen. It is essential to note that these predictions are subject to change depending on evolving economic and geopolitical developments. Monitoring the situation closely and considering expert analysis is crucial for investors and policymakers seeking to navigate the potential implications of yen depreciation.
円安 いつまで続く？2025
※為替レートは変動するため、記載されている数値はあくまで参考値です。
現在（2023年2月現在）、円安が続いています。1ドル＝130円台前半を推移しており、2022年10月の150円台後半から円高方向に反転しています。この円安はいつまで続くのでしょうか？
円安が続く要因としては、日米の金利差があります。日本は低金利政策を維持しているのに対し、米国はインフレ抑制のため利上げを続けています。この金利差により、円を売ってドルを買う動きが強まり、円安が進んでいます。
また、ウクライナ情勢や中国経済の減速など、世界情勢の不透明感も円安に影響を及ぼしています。不透明感が高まると、安全資産とされるドルに資金が流入し、円安が進みます。
ただし、円安が長期的に続くとは限りません。日米の金利差が縮小したり、世界情勢が安定したりすれば、円高方向に反転する可能性もあります。今後の動向に注目が必要です。
円安に関するQ&A
円安が企業に与える影響は？
円安が消費者物価に与える影響は？
円安が株式市場に与える影響は？
円安が為替ヘッジに与える影響は？
円安になると、円を売ってドルを買っていた企業の為替ヘッジが外れ、損失が発生します。
